The two-day workshop will bring together approximately 10 researchers and policy communicators to discuss, and move forward, research on this important intersection. We will spend much of the workshop brainstorming about knowledge gaps and beginning papers/proposals designed to fill those gaps. Contributors will include members of IUSSP’s Special Emphasis Panel on Climate, Migration and Health. For more information, please contact Lori.Hunter@colorado.edu.
The goals for the mini-conference are to provide a forum for presentation of innovative
research, provide space for small-group discussion around critical research themes, and offer
networking opportunities for scholars at all career stages.
There will be four "Flash Sessions" consisting of short presentations followed by conversation around nearby posters reflecting the research in the morning session, followed by smaller working groups.
Dr. Brian E. Tucker: President and Founder, GeoHazards International
Reflections on Efforts to Reduce Disaster Risk in Poor Countries:
Spanning the Kennedy and Trump Eras
GeoHazards International, a California-based nonprofit organization, was founded in 1991 in response to the large and rapidly growing natural hazards risk in developing countries compared to that in industrialized countries. Our mission is to stop death and suffering from earthquakes, tsunamis, and other natural hazards in the world’s most vulnerable, underserved communities, by working before disasters strike. Our motivation was, in a sense, a response to Kennedy’s inaugural call: “To those peoples in the huts and villages of half the globe struggling to break the bonds of mass misery, we pledge our best efforts to help them help themselves....” Our approach emphasizes preparation, sustainability, local capacity, and advocacy.
Over the last quarter century, GeoHazards International has applied this approach successfully in scores of communities around the world. During this same period, other organizations have joined our efforts and, even, a new UN organization was created to reduce exposure to natural hazards.
Despite these diverse efforts, disaster losses are increasing in poor countries and the human and economic toll is projected to continue to rise. If the world’s poorest countries are to develop unimpeded by disasters – to the benefit of all countries – several difficult changes are necessary. Investments in disaster preparedness and mitigation must be increased. The task of reducing risk must be viewed not as just an engineering and scientific challenge but also as a sociological, political, and psychological one. Recent decisions must be reversed, and financial and intellectual resources of industrialized countries must be recommitted to help poor countries.
Biography - Dr. Brian E. Tucker
Brian Tucker received a B.A. in Physics from Pomona College, a Ph.D. in Earth Sciences from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, and a Masters in Public Policy from Harvard University. He headed the Geologic Hazards Programs of the California Geological Survey from 1982 to1991. In 1991, he founded GeoHazards International, a nonprofit organization working to reduce the risk of natural hazards in the world’s most vulnerable communities through preparedness, mitigation, and advocacy. In 2000, he was honored for his service to the people of Nepal by the King of Nepal, and, in 2002, was named a MacArthur Fellow. In 2007, he received the U.S. Civilian Research and Development Foundation’s George Brown Award for International Science and Technology Cooperation and was elected a Fellow of the California Academy of Sciences. He was named one of UC San Diego’s 100 Influential Alumni and Pomona College’s Blaisdell Distinguished Alumni.
Dr. Douglas Seals, Distinguished Professor, Department of Integrative Physiology, CU Boulder
Maintaining optimal population function throughout the lifespan:
fertile collaborative space for physiologists and social-behavioral scientists
The changing age demographics of the U.S. provide opportunities for personal/family experiences and societal contributions for unprecedented numbers of late middle-aged and older adults. To fully capture these opportunities, however, it will be necessary to extend the healthspan (healthy life expectancy) of this rapidly growing cohort. This discussion will emphasize the important role of physiological function in determining population healthspan. We also will note other demographic factors that modulate physiological function throughout the lifespan, and discuss major research gaps in our current understanding of how population characteristics and behaviors influence function as we age. In doing so, we hope to reveal compelling collaborative research opportunities for physiologists and social and behavioral scientists.
Douglas Seals is a Professor of Integrative Physiology and Medicine at the University of Colorado. For 33 years, he has conducted research related to healthy aging, and much of his recent work has focused on prevention of adverse vascular aging and age-related cardiovascular diseases. Doug’s research is supported by grants from the U.S. National Institutes of Health, and for decades his laboratory has provided training in aging research to students and post-graduate scientists.
Dr. Kacper Gradon, Director of the Centre for Forensic & Investigative Sciences (University of Warsaw)
Dr. Kacper Gradon is an Associate Professor at the Faculty of Law, University of Warsaw and the Director of the Centre for Forensic & Investigative Sciences (University of Warsaw). He is also an Associate Visiting Professor at UCL Department of Security and Crime Science (since 2010) as well as the University College London Honorary Senior Research Associate.
Both his Masters (2000) and Doctoral (2008, Magna cum Laude) dissertations address the issues of multiple homicide, crime prevention, criminal analysis and offender profiling. He has over 14 years of experience in research projects and teaching related to Homicide Investigation, Crime Scene Analysis, Forensic & Investigative Sciences and Criminology that he gained in Poland, UK, Canada and the USA. He has spoken at over 90 academic and Police conferences and seminars across Europe and North America.
Dr. Gradon worked for 3 years at the General Headquarters of the Polish National Police, where he participated in the creation of the Criminal Analysis and Criminal Intelligence Units. He also completed the London Metropolitan Police Specialist Operations Training of Hostage Negotiations, as well as several other Police courses in preventing and combating crime, led by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Dutch Police, Guardia di Finanza, Bundeskriminalamt, Royal Ulster Constabulary and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.
FP7 PRIME was a 3-year long (2014-2017) EU-funded project aimed to improve the understanding of lone actor terrorism and to inform the design of social and physical counter-measures for the prevention of lone-actor radicalization, the disruption of lone-actor terrorist plots and the mitigation of terrorist attacks carried out by lone extremists. PRIME research consortium (University College London, Kings College London, University of Warsaw, University of Leiden, Aarhus University and Hebrew University of Jerusalem) cooperated closely with subject matter experts and with counter-terrorism and counter-extremism merit.
The presentation will focus on the most practical observations and conclusions drawn by the PRIME team responsible for the analysis of existing and potential countermeasures against violent extremism and terrorism. University of Warsaw scholars interviewed and consulted over 130 frontline practitioners representing law-enforcement agencies and intelligence services from Europe, USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, India, Georgia and Israel, gathering first-hand data on the operational constraints and limitations affecting the effectiveness of counter-terrorism operations, and preparing the comprehensive set of countermeasures that can be practically applied to disrupt extremist plots at all three stages of the PRIME-designed “RAPA” model (Radicalization – Attack Preparation – Attack).
The speaker will cover the PRIME recommendations presented to the European Commission and will go beyond the state of the art, describing the approaches both to the newly adapted "analogue" terrorist MOs (such as run-over attacks, arsons and stabbings - strategies endorsed both by ISIS and AQ), and to the digital frontiers of threats, analyzing the challenges that they pose to law-enforcement and security services.
Problem Behavior and Positive Youth Development Program
Dr. Larry Hedges, Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University
Replication is a fundamental aspect of the scientific method and is central to the practice of science. Yet recent empirical research has called into question the replicability of experimental research which undermines the credibility of science and the evidence science provides. There has been little research on the methodology of replication itself, including the design of replication studies and appropriate statistical analyses to determine whether a set of studies replicate one another. This talk will draw on a meta-analytic perspective to formalize ideas about the definition of replication and the analysis of replication studies.
Sponsored By: Blueprints for Healthy Youth Development, Problem Behavior and Positive Youth Development Program, Health and Society Program, School of Education at the University of Colorado Boulder
Rick Mansfield, Economics, University of Colorado-Boulder
"How Local Are U.S. Labor Markets?: Using an Assignment Model to Forecast the Geographic Incidence of Local Labor Demand Shocks."
This paper examines the welfare incidence of across locations and demographic groups for labor demand shocks featuring particular geographic and firm type compositions. LEHD data on the near universe of U.S. job transitions are used to estimate a rich two-sided assignment model of the labor market featuring thousands of parameters that is then used to generate simulated forecasts of many alternative local shocks. These forecasts suggest that existing local workers account for only 0.1\% (2.7\%) of total welfare (employment) gains, with 80\% (56\%) of welfare (employment) gains accruing to out-of-state workers. This is despite the fact that projected employment rate increases from a typical positive shock are 7 times larger for existing workers in the targeted Census tract than for workers from an adjacent tract, because workers in the target tract are a minuscule share of the national labor market. Further, the projected earnings incidence across local skill groups is highly sensitive to the shock's firm type composition.
Kathleen Stewart, Center for Geospatial Science, University of Maryland
Kathleen Stewart is Associate Professor of Geographical Sciences and Director of the Center for Geospatial Information Science at the University of Maryland. Her research on geospatial dynamics involves projects using space‐time trajectories dynamic GIS. She is interested in mobility, spatial accessibility, often in a big data context. She currently investigates movement and mobility in public health and transportation. Additional interests focus on geospatial ontologies and spatiotemporal information retrieval.
Colloquium Abstract: We have been applying big geospatial data processing techniques to vehicle GPS data collected over several months in 2015 for Maryland roads in order to reconstruct spatiotemporal vehicle trajectories and understand how the volume of traffic varies on different types of roads. Volume of traffic or vehicle miles traveled estimates contribute to improved safety, mobility, and carbon emission tracking for vehicles on US roads. Traditional map matching algorithms, for example, algorithms based on Hidden Markov Models that match GPS trajectories onto road networks take a very long time to process millions of GPS trajectories. In this talk, I will discuss strategies for reconstructing vehicle trajectories from GPS trip data including some of the issues that we have encountered working with massive GPS datasets, where depending on the sampling, we could be working with millions of trips and hundreds of millions of waypoints. I’ll share some of our results so far including visualizations of the travel activity patterns.
Katalin Fabian, Department of Government and Law, Lafayette College Easton, PA
The Gender Politics of Illiberalism in Central Europe:
Domestic Violence and Midwifery
The anti-gender movement—which blames feminism for a “global sexual revolution” that threatens “freedom,” the family, and the survival of humankind—began in the West, but has had more influence thus far in Hungary, Poland, and Russia where leaders have embraced their ideas and used them to justify illiberalism. This conservative trend butts against the human rights achievements of the 1990s, when international organizations and Central European NGOs successfully introduced the term “domestic violence” and established services and some legal protections for its victims. The 2011 Istanbul Convention, the first binding international legal instrument among the Council of Europe member states that requires and monitors the establishment of laws and services for victims of domestic violence has become a focal point of conflict because many Central European governmental attitudes have changed direction from openness and interest to hostility toward gendered analysis of domestic violence. A similar turnaround has taken place with the previously successful midwifery movements of the early 2000s that tried to make birth a less oppressive experience for expectant mothers and newborns. How, why, and when Central European publics and governments respond to conflicting values and pressures regarding these two central policy aspects of gender equality will be the subject of this presentation.
Program on International Development
Word co-occurrences and similarity in survey prompts (questions) carry lexical and semantic information. This presentation demonstrates the potency of using such embedded information by demonstrating that behavioral theories can be reconstructed significantly through Natural Language Processing (NLP) approaches. It is suggested that, possibly, part of the reason for the high statistical validity and correlational relationships between many constructs in behavioral theories may be attributed to the lexical and semantic closeness of measurement items. After demonstrating this phenomenon in several theories, two competing areas of research are outlined: 1) The use of NLP to predict the correlation matrices for behavioral theories, and potentially adjust the relationship between constructs and behaviors to better predict future behavior; 2) the large-scale analysis of thousands of survey prompts to create maps and better understand their relationships. The presentation will show how NLP can be used to solve Thorndike’s (1904) Jingle Fallacy and Kelley’s (1927) Jangle Fallacy, as well as to create the nomological networks suggested by Cronbach and Meehl (1955).
Dr. Kai R. Larsen is an associate professor of information systems within the Division of Organizational Leadership and Information Analytics at the Leeds School of Business with a courtesy appointment as an Associate Professor in Information Science in the College of Media, Communication and Information. He is conducting research to create a transdisciplinary "backbone" for behavioral research. His research has implications for our understanding of all human behaviors, including technology utilization, investor decisions, and cancer prevention behaviors. He was the 2015 recipient of the Association for Information Systems’ Technology Challenge Award.
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